Match context

The upcoming match between FCSB and Uta Arad is scheduled for 30.08.2026 18:00 in Liga I. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FCSB are in position 3 with 11 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDDW. Uta Arad are in position 15 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLD.

Recent results

FCSB recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDLWLWLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Uta Arad recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLDLWWWW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FCSB recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Uta Arad recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FCSB to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.34%, 23.21% and 16.46%. The model momentum difference is 43.88 points in favour of FCSB. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.49%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FCSB -0.5 / Uta Arad +0.5 supports FCSB by an average 1.08 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.97% bucket win rate across 504 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FCSB at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Uta Arad away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FCSB and Uta Arad ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.8 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FCSB at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, FCSB received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Uta Arad away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Uta Arad received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FCSB at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.08 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.