Match context

The upcoming match between Lipno Stęszew and Polonia Środa is scheduled for 22.08.2026 15:00 in III Liga - Group 2. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Lipno Stęszew are in position 16 with 1 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLD. Polonia Środa are in position 1 with 12 points after 2 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWW.

Recent results

Lipno Stęszew recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWLWWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Polonia Środa recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLLWWWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lipno Stęszew recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Polonia Środa recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Polonia Środa to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 16.42%, 20.86% and 62.72%. The model momentum difference is 46.30 points in favour of Polonia Środa. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.68%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Lipno Stęszew -0.25 / Polonia Środa +0.25 supports Polonia Środa by an average 10.36 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Lipno Stęszew and Polonia Środa ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.33 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Polonia Środa at +0.25. The stored market movement was 10.36 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.