Match context

The upcoming match between Polonia Środa and Unia Swarzędz is scheduled for 11.09.2026 17:00 in III Liga - Group 2. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Polonia Środa are in position 1 with 19 points after 7 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 11 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWW. Unia Swarzędz are in position 13 with 7 points after 7 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 7 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLWL.

Recent results

Polonia Środa recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWWWWWLL. The averages are 2.70 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Unia Swarzędz recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWLLWLWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Polonia Środa recorded 4 wins, there were 3 draws, and Unia Swarzędz recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 22.2% of those matches, while 22.2% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Polonia Środa to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.48%, 20.67% and 18.85%. The model momentum difference is 41.64 points in favour of Polonia Środa. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.49%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Polonia Środa 0 / Unia Swarzędz 0 supports Polonia Środa by an average 6.44 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.47).

What happened in the match

The match between Polonia Środa and Unia Swarzędz ended 4-3. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.67 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 77.8%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 77.8%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Polonia Środa at 0. The stored market movement was 6.44 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.47. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.