Match context

The upcoming match between Almeria and Eldense is scheduled for 17.08.2026 19:30 in Segunda División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Almeria recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLDWDWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Eldense recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLLLWDW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Almeria recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Eldense recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Almeria to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.73%, 18.81% and 10.45%. The model momentum difference is 60.28 points in favour of Almeria. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.93%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Almeria +0.25 / Eldense -0.25 supports Eldense by an average 1.15 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 78/100, 77.66% bucket win rate across 461 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Almeria and Eldense ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 total goals, while this match produced 3. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Eldense at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.15 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.