Match context

The upcoming match between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:30 in Segunda División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Burgos are in position 13 with 4 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLW. AD Ceuta FC are in position 22 with 0 points after 4 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLL.

Recent results

Burgos recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWDLWWWW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. AD Ceuta FC recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLWWLWWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Burgos recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and AD Ceuta FC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 95%; over 9.5 corners — 85%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Burgos or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.14%, 26.16% and 15.70%. The model momentum difference is 42.44 points in favour of Burgos. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -1.37%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Burgos 0 / AD Ceuta FC 0 supports Burgos by an average 2.17 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 45 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Burgos at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for AD Ceuta FC away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.1 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 95%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 85%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Burgos at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Burgos received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for AD Ceuta FC away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, AD Ceuta FC received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Burgos at 0. The stored market movement was 2.17 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.