Match context

The upcoming match between Athletic Club and Elche is scheduled for 12.09.2026 16:30 in La Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Athletic Club are in position 10 with 6 points after 4 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLL. Elche are in position 19 with 1 points after 4 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLD.

Recent results

Athletic Club recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLLLLWWD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Elche recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDDDWDWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Athletic Club recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Elche recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.08; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Athletic Club to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.19%, 20.09% and 12.72%. The model momentum difference is 54.47 points in favour of Athletic Club. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Athletic Club +0.25 / Elche -0.25 supports Athletic Club by an average 2.00 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 17 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Athletic Club at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Elche away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Athletic Club and Elche ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.08 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Athletic Club at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Athletic Club received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Elche away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Elche received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Athletic Club at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.