Match context

The upcoming match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano is scheduled for 12.09.2026 19:00 in La Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Real Madrid are in position 4 with 9 points after 4 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWW. Rayo Vallecano are in position 14 with 4 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 7 scored and 10 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDL.

Recent results

Real Madrid recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWWWWDW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rayo Vallecano recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLLWLLLW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid recorded 5 wins, there were 4 draws, and Rayo Vallecano recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Real Madrid to win with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 83.50%, 11.00% and 5.50%. The model momentum difference is 78.00 points in favour of Real Madrid. The input data quality score is 87/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.48%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 29, score 83/100, 82.83% group success rate across 501 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Real Madrid at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Rayo Vallecano away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 16 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.6 total corners. The match recorded 16 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Real Madrid at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Real Madrid received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rayo Vallecano away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Rayo Vallecano received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 29. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 11 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.