Match context

The upcoming match between Montana and Nesebar is scheduled for 04.08.2026 15:30 in Second League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Montana are in position 8 with 1 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is D. Nesebar are in position 18 with 0 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is L.

Recent results

Montana recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLLDDDW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nesebar recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWWWWWW. The averages are 4 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Montana recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and Nesebar recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.17 goals per match. Both teams scored in 83.3% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Montana to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 74.50%, 17.74% and 7.76%. The model momentum difference is 66.74 points in favour of Montana. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.87%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 77/100, 76.85% bucket win rate across 311 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Montana and Nesebar ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.17 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.