Match context

The upcoming match between Sportist Svoge and Nesebar is scheduled for 16.08.2026 15:00 in Second League. The listed venue is Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov, Svoge. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sportist Svoge are in position 9 with 5 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDD. Nesebar are in position 14 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLL.

Recent results

Sportist Svoge recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDLWLWLWD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nesebar recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLDWWWWWW. The averages are 3.50 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sportist Svoge recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Nesebar recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sportist Svoge or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.94%, 24.95% and 17.11%. The model momentum difference is 40.84 points in favour of Sportist Svoge. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.99%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sportist Svoge -0.25 / Nesebar +0.25 supports Nesebar by an average 3.38 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sportist Svoge at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 3 completed matches (66.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Nesebar away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sportist Svoge and Nesebar ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sportist Svoge at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Sportist Svoge received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nesebar away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Nesebar received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Nesebar at +0.25. The stored market movement was 3.38 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.