Match context

The upcoming match between Marek and Nesebar is scheduled for 02.09.2026 14:00 in Second League. The listed venue is Stadion Bonchuk, Dupnitsa. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Marek are in position 11 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLLL. Nesebar are in position 5 with 10 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWWL.

Recent results

Marek recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLLLWLLWD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nesebar recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWLLDWWW. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marek recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Nesebar recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Marek or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.93%, 26.49% and 19.58%. The model momentum difference is 34.35 points in favour of Marek. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.93%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Marek 0 / Nesebar 0 supports Nesebar by an average 1.56 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.27, score 77/100, 77.32% bucket win rate across 97 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Marek at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Nesebar away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Marek and Nesebar ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Marek at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Marek received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nesebar away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Nesebar received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Nesebar at 0. The stored market movement was 1.56 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.27. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.