Match context

The upcoming match between Real Madrid W and Atletico Madrid W is scheduled for 30.08.2026 19:00 in Primera División Femenina. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Real Madrid W recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDWLLL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atletico Madrid W recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWWWWWWL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid W recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Atletico Madrid W recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 94%; over 9.5 corners — 84%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Real Madrid W or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.88%, 23.10% and 18.02%. The model momentum difference is 40.86 points in favour of Real Madrid W. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.00%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Real Madrid W 0 / Atletico Madrid W 0 supports Real Madrid W by an average 1.14 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Real Madrid W and Atletico Madrid W ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 5 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Real Madrid W at 0. The stored market movement was 1.14 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.