Match context

The upcoming match between Atletico Madrid W and Valencia W is scheduled for 23.10.2026 17:30 in Primera División Femenina. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Atletico Madrid W are in position 5 with 12 points after 7 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 11 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWL. Valencia W are in position 16 with 0 points after 7 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Atletico Madrid W recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWLWLLDL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Valencia W recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLLDDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Atletico Madrid W recorded 8 wins, there were 2 draws, and Valencia W recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.41; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 99%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Atletico Madrid W to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 74.59%, 15.83% and 9.58%. The model momentum difference is 65.01 points in favour of Atletico Madrid W. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.00%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Atletico Madrid W 0 / Valencia W 0 supports Atletico Madrid W by an average 1.41 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Atletico Madrid W at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 7 completed matches (57.1% coverage). The discipline profile for Valencia W away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 7 completed matches (71.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Atletico Madrid W and Valencia W ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atletico Madrid W at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, Atletico Madrid W received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 3.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Valencia W away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Valencia W received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Atletico Madrid W at 0. The stored market movement was 1.41 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.