Match context

The upcoming match between Caen and Gobelins is scheduled for 12.09.2026 12:45 in Ligue 3. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Caen are in position 5 with 9 points after 5 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLW. Gobelins are in position 7 with 8 points after 5 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWLW.

Recent results

Caen recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLWDWWLW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Gobelins recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWLWWWLDD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Caen recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Gobelins recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Caen or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.14%, 24.95% and 18.91%. The model momentum difference is 37.23 points in favour of Caen. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.18%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Caen at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Gobelins away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 50.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Caen and Gobelins ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Caen at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. In this game, Caen received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gobelins away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, Gobelins received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 50%, and a red card in 50%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.