Match context

The upcoming match between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln is scheduled for 04.09.2026 18:30 in Bundesliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

VfB Stuttgart recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWWWWWLD. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. 1. FC Köln recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWLLDLD. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, VfB Stuttgart recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and 1. FC Köln recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as VfB Stuttgart to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.37%, 18.67% and 16.97%. The model momentum difference is 47.40 points in favour of VfB Stuttgart. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.67%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair VfB Stuttgart -0.5 / 1. FC Köln +0.5 supports 1. FC Köln by an average 1.06 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80% group success rate across 675 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 18 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.8 total corners. The match recorded 18 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported 1. FC Köln at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.06 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.