Match context

The upcoming match between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin is scheduled for 05.09.2026 13:30 in Bundesliga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Bayer Leverkusen recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWWWWD. The averages are 2.90 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Union Berlin recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWDLLDLD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Bayer Leverkusen recorded 5 wins, there were 4 draws, and Union Berlin recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Bayer Leverkusen to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.21%, 19.77% and 15.02%. The model momentum difference is 50.18 points in favour of Bayer Leverkusen. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Bayer Leverkusen -1 / Union Berlin +1 supports Union Berlin by an average 1.18 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 12.6 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Union Berlin at +1. The stored market movement was 1.18 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.