Match context

The upcoming match between FC Porto and Alverca is scheduled for 09.08.2026 17:00 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

FC Porto recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWWDWLW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Alverca recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLDLWLW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, FC Porto recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Alverca recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%; Both teams to score — 30%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Porto to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 77.09%, 15.68% and 7.23%. The model momentum difference is 69.86 points in favour of FC Porto. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between FC Porto and Alverca ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.