Match context

The upcoming match between Estrela and SC Braga is scheduled for 10.09.2026 19:15 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Estrela are in position 9 with 6 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDD. SC Braga are in position 7 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD.

Recent results

Estrela recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDDWDWLWD. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. SC Braga recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWDDWWWD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Estrela recorded 0 wins, there were 3 draws, and SC Braga recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or SC Braga (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.89%, 25.53% and 55.57%. The model momentum difference is 36.68 points in favour of SC Braga. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.11%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Estrela -0.25 / SC Braga +0.25 supports SC Braga by an average 1.53 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 23 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Estrela at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for SC Braga away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Estrela and SC Braga ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 total goals, while this match produced 3. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Estrela at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Estrela received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for SC Braga away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, SC Braga received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported SC Braga at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.53 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.