Match context

The upcoming match between Sporting CP and Alverca is scheduled for 22.08.2026 19:30 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sporting CP are in position 6 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is WD. Alverca are in position 14 with 1 points. The stored form sequence is DL.

Recent results

Sporting CP recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWWLWWW. The averages are 3.50 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Alverca recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWWWLDLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sporting CP recorded 3 wins, there were 0 draws, and Alverca recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.75 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sporting CP to win with 76% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 76.11%, 16.15% and 7.74%. The model momentum difference is 68.37 points in favour of Sporting CP. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.14%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sporting CP at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Alverca away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sporting CP and Alverca ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 1 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.75 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 11.3 total corners. The match recorded 1 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sporting CP at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Sporting CP received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Alverca away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Alverca received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Odd HT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.