Match context

The upcoming match between Alverca and SC Braga is scheduled for 05.09.2026 17:00 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Alverca are in position 17 with 1 points. The stored form sequence is LDL. SC Braga are in position 13 with 1 points. The stored form sequence is D.

Recent results

Alverca recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLWWWWLD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. SC Braga recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDDWWWDW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alverca recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and SC Braga recorded 2 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.05; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or SC Braga (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.86%, 27.74% and 52.40%. The model momentum difference is 32.54 points in favour of SC Braga. The input data quality score is 87/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.43%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Alverca +0.25 / SC Braga -0.25 supports SC Braga by an average 1.35 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 24 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Alverca at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for SC Braga away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Alverca and SC Braga ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.05 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Alverca at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Alverca received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for SC Braga away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, SC Braga received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported SC Braga at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.35 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.