Match context

The upcoming match between Maritimo and Benfica is scheduled for 05.09.2026 17:00 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Maritimo are in position 4 with 7 points. The stored form sequence is DWW. Benfica are in position 6 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is WD.

Recent results

Maritimo recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWWLLWW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Benfica recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDDWWWL. The averages are 3.50 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Maritimo recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Benfica recorded 9 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 98%; over 9.5 corners — 87%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Benfica to win with 78% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 7.19%, 14.95% and 77.86%. The model momentum difference is 70.68 points in favour of Benfica. The input data quality score is 87/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.56%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Maritimo 0 / Benfica 0 supports Benfica by an average 1.76 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Maritimo at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Benfica away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Maritimo and Benfica ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.3 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 98%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 87%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Maritimo at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Maritimo received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Benfica away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0 total cards per match. In this game, Benfica received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 3 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Benfica at 0. The stored market movement was 1.76 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.