Match context

The upcoming match between Sporting CP and Nacional is scheduled for 05.09.2026 19:30 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Sporting CP are in position 2 with 7 points. The stored form sequence is WWD. Nacional are in position 7 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is LWD.

Recent results

Sporting CP recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWWWWLW. The averages are 3.30 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nacional recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDLDDDWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sporting CP recorded 10 wins, there were 0 draws, and Nacional recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Sporting CP to win with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 80.31%, 13.42% and 6.26%. The model momentum difference is 74.05 points in favour of Sporting CP. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Sporting CP 0 / Nacional 0 supports Nacional by an average 1.30 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Sporting CP at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Nacional away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Sporting CP and Nacional ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.6 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sporting CP at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Sporting CP received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nacional away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Nacional received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Sporting CP at 0. The stored market movement was 1.3 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.