Match context

The upcoming match between Guimaraes and Casa Pia is scheduled for 06.09.2026 17:00 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Guimaraes are in position 12 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LWLL. Casa Pia are in position 18 with 0 points. The stored form sequence is LLLL.

Recent results

Guimaraes recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLWDWWWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Casa Pia recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLLWWDD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Guimaraes recorded 2 wins, there were 5 draws, and Casa Pia recorded 2 wins. The average total was 0.78 goals per match. Both teams scored in 11.1% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.60; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 89%; over 9.5 corners — 80%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Guimaraes to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.05%, 24.58% and 14.37%. The model momentum difference is 46.68 points in favour of Guimaraes. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Guimaraes 0 / Casa Pia 0 supports Guimaraes by an average 2.83 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 9 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Guimaraes at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Casa Pia away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Guimaraes and Casa Pia ended 0-0. The game produced 0 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 21 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 0.78 goals, while this match produced 0. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 88.9%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.6 total corners. The match recorded 21 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 89%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Guimaraes at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Guimaraes received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Casa Pia away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Casa Pia received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Guimaraes at 0. The stored market movement was 2.83 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-0, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.