Match context

The upcoming match between Casa Pia and FC Porto is scheduled for 12.09.2026 17:00 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Casa Pia are in position 18 with 1 points after 5 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 11 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLL. FC Porto are in position 1 with 15 points after 5 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Casa Pia recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLLLWWD. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Porto recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWWWWWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and FC Porto recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.56 goals per match. Both teams scored in 44.4% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.03; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 95%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Porto to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 8.54%, 14.45% and 77.01%. The model momentum difference is 68.47 points in favour of FC Porto. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.05%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Away -1.75. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Casa Pia at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Porto away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Casa Pia and FC Porto ended 1-4. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 15 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.56 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.03 total corners. The match recorded 15 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 95%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Casa Pia at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Casa Pia received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Porto away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, FC Porto received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FC Porto at -1.75. At the final score of 1-4, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.