Match context

The upcoming match between Rio Ave and Estrela is scheduled for 14.09.2026 17:45 in Primeira Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Rio Ave are in position 16 with 3 points after 5 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 11 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL. Estrela are in position 6 with 9 points after 5 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 9 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWDD.

Recent results

Rio Ave recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLWDWWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Estrela recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDDWDWLW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Estrela recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.88 goals per match. Both teams scored in 62.5% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Rio Ave -0.75 / Estrela +0.75 supports Rio Ave by an average 1.02 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 21 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

4 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2.05). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 77/100, 77.30% bucket win rate across 586 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Rio Ave at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Estrela away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Rio Ave and Estrela ended 3-3. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.88 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rio Ave at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.5 total cards per match. In this game, Rio Ave received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Estrela away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Estrela received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Rio Ave at -0.75. The stored market movement was 1.02 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2.05. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.