Match context

The upcoming match between Naestved and Thisted FC is scheduled for 13.09.2026 11:00 in 2. Division. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Naestved are in position 6 with 9 points after 6 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 7 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWD. Thisted FC are in position 12 with 1 points after 6 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLL.

Recent results

Naestved recorded 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLDWDWDDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Thisted FC recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLLLWLWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Naestved recorded 5 wins, there were 1 draws, and Thisted FC recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Naestved or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.70%, 22.39% and 17.91%. The model momentum difference is 41.79 points in favour of Naestved. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.88%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home -1. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Naestved and Thisted FC ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Naestved at -1. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.