Match context

The upcoming match between Trefelin and Caernarfon Town is scheduled for 21.08.2026 18:45 in Premier League. The listed venue is Ynys Park, Cwmafan. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Trefelin are in position 16 with 0 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLL. Caernarfon Town are in position 7 with 6 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLW.

Recent results

Trefelin recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWWWWLLW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Caernarfon Town recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLWWWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Caernarfon Town to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.24%, 17.98% and 70.78%. The model momentum difference is 59.55 points in favour of Caernarfon Town. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Trefelin 0 / Caernarfon Town 0 supports Caernarfon Town by an average 2.40 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 78/100, 77.58% bucket win rate across 446 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Trefelin at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Caernarfon Town away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Trefelin and Caernarfon Town ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Trefelin at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Trefelin received 1 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 2 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Caernarfon Town away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Caernarfon Town received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Caernarfon Town at 0. The stored market movement was 2.4 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.