Match context

The upcoming match between The New Saints and Colwyn Bay is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:45 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
The New Saints are in position 4 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD. Colwyn Bay are in position 11 with 4 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDW.

Recent results

The New Saints recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWLLLWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Colwyn Bay recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWWLDWLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, The New Saints recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Colwyn Bay recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.63 goals per match. Both teams scored in 37.5% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as The New Saints to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.72%, 17.08% and 11.21%. The model momentum difference is 60.51 points in favour of The New Saints. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.35%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair The New Saints 0 / Colwyn Bay 0 supports The New Saints by an average 1.40 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 9 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.69% bucket win rate across 488 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for The New Saints at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Colwyn Bay away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 4 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between The New Saints and Colwyn Bay ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.63 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for The New Saints at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, The New Saints received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Colwyn Bay away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Colwyn Bay received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported The New Saints at 0. The stored market movement was 1.4 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.