Match context

The upcoming match between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints is scheduled for 31.08.2026 14:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Caernarfon Town are in position 7 with 6 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLW. The New Saints are in position 4 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD.

Recent results

Caernarfon Town recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWLLWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. The New Saints recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDWLLLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon Town recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and The New Saints recorded 9 wins. The average total was 3.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as The New Saints to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.01%, 21.96% and 60.03%. The model momentum difference is 42.02 points in favour of The New Saints. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.96%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Caernarfon Town at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 5 completed matches (60.0% coverage). The discipline profile for The New Saints away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.7 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Caernarfon Town at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Caernarfon Town received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for The New Saints away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, The New Saints received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.