Match context

The upcoming match between GAP Connah S Quay FC and Haverfordwest County AFC is scheduled for 04.09.2026 18:45 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
GAP Connah S Quay FC are in position 5 with 6 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWL. Haverfordwest County AFC are in position 14 with 0 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLL.

Recent results

GAP Connah S Quay FC recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLLDWD. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Haverfordwest County AFC recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLLWLWD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, GAP Connah S Quay FC recorded 4 wins, there were 3 draws, and Haverfordwest County AFC recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as GAP Connah S Quay FC to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.81%, 19.59% and 12.59%. The model momentum difference is 55.22 points in favour of GAP Connah S Quay FC. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.84%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair GAP Connah S Quay FC +0.25 / Haverfordwest County AFC -0.25 supports GAP Connah S Quay FC by an average 2.45 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.93% bucket win rate across 538 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for GAP Connah S Quay FC at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 6 completed matches (50.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Haverfordwest County AFC away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between GAP Connah S Quay FC and Haverfordwest County AFC ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for GAP Connah S Quay FC at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, GAP Connah S Quay FC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Haverfordwest County AFC away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Haverfordwest County AFC received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported GAP Connah S Quay FC at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.45 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.