Match context

The upcoming match between The New Saints and Barry Town is scheduled for 05.09.2026 16:15 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
The New Saints are in position 4 with 7 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 0 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD. Barry Town are in position 2 with 9 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWW.

Recent results

The New Saints recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDWLLL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Barry Town recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWLWWW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, The New Saints recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Barry Town recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as The New Saints to win with 74% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.83%, 17.16% and 9.01%. The model momentum difference is 64.83 points in favour of The New Saints. The input data quality score is 83/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.92%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair The New Saints +0.25 / Barry Town -0.25 supports The New Saints by an average 4.91 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for The New Saints at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 6 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Barry Town away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 6 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between The New Saints and Barry Town ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for The New Saints at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, The New Saints received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Barry Town away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Barry Town received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported The New Saints at +0.25. The stored market movement was 4.91 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.