Match context

The upcoming match between Trefelin and Penybont is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:45 in Premier League. The listed venue is Ynys Park, Cwmafan. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Trefelin are in position 14 with 2 points after 7 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLL. Penybont are in position 6 with 15 points after 7 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWW.

Recent results

Trefelin recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLLLLWWW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Penybont recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWWDLLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, Trefelin recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Penybont recorded 1 wins. The average total was 7 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Penybont to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 13.84%, 20.00% and 66.16%. The model momentum difference is 52.32 points in favour of Penybont. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.02%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Trefelin at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 66.7%. Season card data is available for 5 of 7 completed matches (71.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Penybont away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 4.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 7 completed matches (57.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Trefelin and Penybont ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Trefelin at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, Trefelin received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 66.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Penybont away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Penybont received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.