Match context

The upcoming match between Tondela and FC Porto B is scheduled for 05.09.2026 10:00 in Segunda Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Tondela are in position 14 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LLLW. FC Porto B are in position 15 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LWLL.

Recent results

Tondela recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLDLLWD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Porto B recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLDLWWWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tondela recorded 0 wins, there were 5 draws, and FC Porto B recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.17 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Tondela or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.40%, 25.65% and 19.95%. The model momentum difference is 34.46 points in favour of Tondela. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Tondela -0.75 / FC Porto B +0.75 supports Tondela by an average 2.24 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Tondela at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 5.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 6.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 50.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Porto B away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Tondela and FC Porto B ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.17 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Tondela at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 5 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 6 total cards per match. In this game, Tondela received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 50%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Porto B away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, FC Porto B received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Tondela at -0.75. The stored market movement was 2.24 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.