Match context

The upcoming match between FC Sochi and Chelyabinsk is scheduled for 30.08.2026 15:00 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FC Sochi are in position 3 with 16 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWL. Chelyabinsk are in position 13 with 7 points after 4 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLWL.

Recent results

FC Sochi recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWLDLW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Chelyabinsk recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWLLWDDL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Sochi to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.48%, 23.54% and 15.98%. The model momentum difference is 44.50 points in favour of FC Sochi. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.58 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -4.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FC Sochi 0 / Chelyabinsk 0 supports Chelyabinsk by an average 1.99 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 10 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.24, score 81/100, 80.56% bucket win rate across 108 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FC Sochi at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 8 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Chelyabinsk away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 0.75 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Sochi and Chelyabinsk ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Sochi at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, FC Sochi received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chelyabinsk away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 0.75 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Chelyabinsk received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 4 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Chelyabinsk at 0. The stored market movement was 1.99 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.24. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.