Match context

The upcoming match between Arsenal Tula and Ska-khabarovsk is scheduled for 13.09.2026 14:00 in First League. The listed venue is Stadion Arsenal, Tula. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Arsenal Tula are in position 10 with 12 points after 10 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLWD. Ska-khabarovsk are in position 18 with 3 points after 9 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 8 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWL.

Recent results

Arsenal Tula recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLWDDWLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ska-khabarovsk recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLLLLLD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Arsenal Tula recorded 7 wins, there were 1 draws, and Ska-khabarovsk recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.83; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Arsenal Tula or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.59%, 25.96% and 19.46%. The model momentum difference is 35.13 points in favour of Arsenal Tula. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -4.96%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Arsenal Tula -1.5 / Ska-khabarovsk +1.5 supports Ska-khabarovsk by an average 2.01 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Arsenal Tula at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 1.60 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 1.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 40.0%, 20.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 10 completed matches (80.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ska-khabarovsk away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.25 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 8 completed matches (87.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Arsenal Tula and Ska-khabarovsk ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.83 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arsenal Tula at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 1.6 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 1.8 total cards per match. In this game, Arsenal Tula received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.8 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ska-khabarovsk away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.25 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Ska-khabarovsk received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ska-khabarovsk at +1.5. The stored market movement was 2.01 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.