Match context

The upcoming match between Spartak Kostroma and FK Neftekhimik is scheduled for 14.09.2026 15:00 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Spartak Kostroma are in position 6 with 18 points after 9 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLDW. FK Neftekhimik are in position 9 with 12 points after 10 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 7 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWLL.

Recent results

Spartak Kostroma recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLDWDDWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. FK Neftekhimik recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWLLLWLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Spartak Kostroma recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and FK Neftekhimik recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Spartak Kostroma or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.83%, 25.86% and 19.31%. The model momentum difference is 35.52 points in favour of Spartak Kostroma. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -4.79%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Spartak Kostroma 0 / FK Neftekhimik 0 supports FK Neftekhimik by an average 2.66 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 11 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.29, score 83/100, 82.86% bucket win rate across 70 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Spartak Kostroma at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 9 completed matches (77.8% coverage). The discipline profile for FK Neftekhimik away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 10 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Spartak Kostroma and FK Neftekhimik ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Spartak Kostroma at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, Spartak Kostroma received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Neftekhimik away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, FK Neftekhimik received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.8 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FK Neftekhimik at 0. The stored market movement was 2.66 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.29. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.