Match context

The upcoming match between Newport City and Baglan Dragons is scheduled for 21.08.2026 18:30 in FAW Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Newport City recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLLWLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Baglan Dragons recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDLLDLLL. The averages are 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport City recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Baglan Dragons recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Newport City to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.82%, 20.64% and 15.54%. The model momentum difference is 48.28 points in favour of Newport City. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.65%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Newport City 0 / Baglan Dragons 0 supports Newport City by an average 6.99 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.65).

What happened in the match

The match between Newport City and Baglan Dragons ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Newport City at 0. The stored market movement was 6.99 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.65. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.