Match context

The upcoming match between Baglan Dragons and Caerau (Ely) is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:30 in FAW Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Baglan Dragons recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDDLLDLL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Caerau (Ely) recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLDLLWDD. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Baglan Dragons recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Caerau (Ely) recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.86 goals per match. Both teams scored in 42.9% of those matches, while 71.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Caerau (Ely) (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.85%, 21.78% and 58.37%. The model momentum difference is 38.53 points in favour of Caerau (Ely). The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.23%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Baglan Dragons 0 / Caerau (Ely) 0 supports Caerau (Ely) by an average 4.79 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Baglan Dragons and Caerau (Ely) ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.86 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Caerau (Ely) at 0. The stored market movement was 4.79 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.