Match context

The upcoming match between Caerau (Ely) and llanelli AFC is scheduled for 11.09.2026 18:45 in FAW Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Caerau (Ely) recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWDLDLLW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. llanelli AFC recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLLDLLLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caerau (Ely) recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and llanelli AFC recorded 5 wins. The average total was 3.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Caerau (Ely) to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 72.10%, 15.02% and 12.88%. The model momentum difference is 59.23 points in favour of Caerau (Ely). The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.87%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Caerau (Ely) 0 / llanelli AFC 0 supports llanelli AFC by an average 1.55 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 85.28% group success rate across 489 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.61).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Caerau (Ely) at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 6 completed matches (16.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Caerau (Ely) and llanelli AFC ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Caerau (Ely) at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Caerau (Ely) received 0 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported llanelli AFC at 0. The stored market movement was 1.55 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.61. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.