Match context

The upcoming match between Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca is scheduled for 06.09.2026 01:00 in Liga de Expansión MX. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Monarcas are in position 2 with 12 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL. Alebrijes de Oaxaca are in position 10 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWWL.

Recent results

Monarcas recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWLWDLWL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Alebrijes de Oaxaca recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLLWLLD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Monarcas recorded 5 wins, there were 5 draws, and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Monarcas to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.34%, 22.34% and 16.32%. The model momentum difference is 45.02 points in favour of Monarcas. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.16%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Monarcas 0 / Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0 supports Alebrijes de Oaxaca by an average 1.48 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Monarcas at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 1.50 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 50.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 6 completed matches (83.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Alebrijes de Oaxaca away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 6 completed matches (50.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 0. The stored market movement was 1.48 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.