Match context

The upcoming match between Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz is scheduled for 13.09.2026 18:00 in Liga de Expansión MX. The listed venue is Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Leones Negros UDG are in position 2 with 16 points after 7 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWL. CA La Paz are in position 3 with 13 points after 7 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 7 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWW.

Recent results

Leones Negros UDG recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWLWWLLW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. CA La Paz recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWWLLDLL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UDG recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and CA La Paz recorded 5 wins. The average total was 3.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Leones Negros UDG -0.75 / CA La Paz +0.75 supports Leones Negros UDG by an average 2.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 10 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.47).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Leones Negros UDG at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 66.7% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 66.7%. Season card data is available for 6 of 7 completed matches (85.7% coverage). The discipline profile for CA La Paz away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 3.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 50.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 7 completed matches (71.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.9 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Leones Negros UDG at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.67 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, Leones Negros UDG received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 1.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 66.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for CA La Paz away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 3.5 total cards per match. In this game, CA La Paz received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 50%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Leones Negros UDG at -0.75. The stored market movement was 2.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.47. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.