Match context

The upcoming match between Ararat-Armenia and Sardarapat is scheduled for 23.08.2026 17:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ararat-Armenia are in position 2 with 9 points after 2 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWW. Sardarapat are in position 5 with 6 points after 2 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WW.

Recent results

Ararat-Armenia recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWWWLWLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Sardarapat recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDDDWDDDW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ararat-Armenia to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.96%, 18.99% and 20.05%. The model momentum difference is 40.91 points in favour of Ararat-Armenia. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.78%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.52, score 92/100, 85% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ararat-Armenia at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Sardarapat away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ararat-Armenia and Sardarapat ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ararat-Armenia at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Ararat-Armenia received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Sardarapat away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Sardarapat received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.