Match context

The upcoming match between FC Noah and Ararat is scheduled for 30.08.2026 16:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FC Noah are in position 1 with 12 points after 1 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWW. Ararat are in position 9 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLL.

Recent results

FC Noah recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWDWWDDD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ararat recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLDDDLLW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FC Noah recorded 9 wins, there were 0 draws, and Ararat recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Noah to win with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 82.33%, 11.53% and 6.15%. The model momentum difference is 76.18 points in favour of FC Noah. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.79%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FC Noah 0 / Ararat 0 supports FC Noah by an average 4.51 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FC Noah at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 4 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ararat away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Noah and Ararat ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.9 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Noah at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, FC Noah received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ararat away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Ararat received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FC Noah at 0. The stored market movement was 4.51 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.