Match context

The upcoming match between Ararat and Ararat-Armenia is scheduled for 05.09.2026 15:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ararat are in position 10 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL. Ararat-Armenia are in position 5 with 10 points after 2 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWWW.

Recent results

Ararat recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLDDDLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ararat-Armenia recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDLLWWWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ararat recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Ararat-Armenia recorded 9 wins. The average total was 3.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ararat-Armenia to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.20%, 19.90% and 68.90%. The model momentum difference is 57.70 points in favour of Ararat-Armenia. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.43%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ararat at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 50.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Ararat-Armenia away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 5 of 5 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ararat and Ararat-Armenia ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.5 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ararat at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Ararat received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 50%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ararat-Armenia away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Ararat-Armenia received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.