Match context

The upcoming match between Club Nacional and Progreso is scheduled for 02.08.2026 21:30 in Primera División - Apertura. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Club Nacional are in position 7 with 22 points after 21 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWLW. Progreso are in position 15 with 10 points after 21 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLWL.

Recent results

Club Nacional recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLDWLWWDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Progreso recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLLLLLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Club Nacional recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Progreso recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Club Nacional to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.52%, 19.59% and 14.89%. The model momentum difference is 50.64 points in favour of Club Nacional. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.96%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

What happened in the match

The match between Club Nacional and Progreso ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.