Match context

The upcoming match between Stevenage and Colchester is scheduled for 01.08.2026 14:00 in Friendlies Clubs. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Stevenage recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWDWDLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Colchester recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWWDWLLW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Stevenage recorded 3 wins, there were 5 draws, and Colchester recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Stevenage or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.25%, 24.86% and 19.89%. The model momentum difference is 35.36 points in favour of Stevenage. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.28%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Stevenage 0 / Colchester 0 supports Colchester by an average 3.51 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 80/100, 80.09% bucket win rate across 231 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.82).

What happened in the match

The match between Stevenage and Colchester ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Colchester at 0. The stored market movement was 3.51 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.