Match context

The upcoming match between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa is scheduled for 30.08.2026 18:30 in Süper Lig. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Başakşehir are in position 10 with 3 points. The stored form sequence is LW. Kasımpaşa are in position 7 with 4 points. The stored form sequence is WD.

Recent results

Başakşehir recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDWWDLWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kasımpaşa recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWDWDWLDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Başakşehir recorded 9 wins, there were 1 draws, and Kasımpaşa recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 88%; over 9.5 corners — 79%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Başakşehir or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.11%, 24.77% and 17.12%. The model momentum difference is 40.99 points in favour of Başakşehir. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.51%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Başakşehir -1.5 / Kasımpaşa +1.5 supports Kasımpaşa by an average 1.76 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.40, score 93/100, 90% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Başakşehir at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kasımpaşa away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 2 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 8 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.5 total corners. The match recorded 8 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 88%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 79%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Başakşehir at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Başakşehir received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kasımpaşa away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Kasımpaşa received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kasımpaşa at +1.5. The stored market movement was 1.76 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.