Match context

The upcoming match between Beşiktaş and Erzurum BB is scheduled for 11.09.2026 17:00 in Süper Lig. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Beşiktaş are in position 2 with 9 points after 4 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLW. Erzurum BB are in position 14 with 4 points after 4 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLL.

Recent results

Beşiktaş recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLLWWWWWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Erzurum BB recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLLDDDDWW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Beşiktaş recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Erzurum BB recorded 2 wins. The average total was 4.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 83.3% of those matches, while 83.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Beşiktaş to win with 74% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.95%, 16.81% and 9.24%. The model momentum difference is 64.71 points in favour of Beşiktaş. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.56%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home -1.75. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.93% bucket win rate across 558 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Beşiktaş at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Erzurum BB away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Beşiktaş and Erzurum BB ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.33 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Beşiktaş at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Beşiktaş received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Erzurum BB away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Erzurum BB received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Beşiktaş at -1.75. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.