Match context

The upcoming match between Galatasaray and Kocaelispor is scheduled for 13.09.2026 17:00 in Süper Lig. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Galatasaray are in position 2 with 10 points after 4 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWD. Kocaelispor are in position 3 with 9 points after 4 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWL.

Recent results

Galatasaray recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDLDLLW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kocaelispor recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLLDLDD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Galatasaray recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Kocaelispor recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.40; over 7.5 corners — 99%; over 8.5 corners — 87%; over 9.5 corners — 78%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Galatasaray to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 72.31%, 17.49% and 10.20%. The model momentum difference is 62.10 points in favour of Galatasaray. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.17%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Galatasaray +0.25 / Kocaelispor -0.25 supports Kocaelispor by an average 3.63 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Galatasaray at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kocaelispor away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Galatasaray and Kocaelispor ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 19 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.4 total corners. The match recorded 19 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 87%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 78%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Galatasaray at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Galatasaray received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kocaelispor away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Kocaelispor received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Galatasaray at +0.25. The stored market movement was 3.63 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.