Match context

The upcoming match between Southend and Kidderminster Harriers is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:45 in National League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Southend recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDLDWDL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kidderminster Harriers recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWDWWWWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Southend recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Kidderminster Harriers recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Southend to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.12%, 21.89% and 15.99%. The model momentum difference is 46.13 points in favour of Southend. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Southend +0.25 / Kidderminster Harriers -0.25 supports Southend by an average 1.55 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 15 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Southend at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kidderminster Harriers away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Southend and Kidderminster Harriers ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Southend at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Southend received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kidderminster Harriers away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Kidderminster Harriers received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Southend at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.55 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.