Match context

The upcoming match between Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor is scheduled for 15.08.2026 16:00 in 1. Lig. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Fatih Karagümrük recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDLLWLW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ümraniyespor recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWLDWLDL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fatih Karagümrük recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Ümraniyespor recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.53%, 25.48% and 16.99%. The model momentum difference is 40.55 points in favour of Fatih Karagümrük. The input data quality score is 90/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -2.87%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Fatih Karagümrük 0 / Ümraniyespor 0 supports Fatih Karagümrük by an average 2.53 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 total goals, while this match produced 3. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fatih Karagümrük at 0. The stored market movement was 2.53 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.